Post by weatherdude on Oct 12, 2011 11:17:19 GMT -5
Now that Irene is gone, it's time to look forward to the next risk of rain in the region. There should be a cold front approaching the region on Saturday, bringing a low risk of severe weather as there are moderately decent parameters, with LI up to -5, CAPE up to 2000, and Lapse Rates up to 6-6.5. The missing ingredient is the bulk shear, however, which is almost nonexistent south of Canada, and should keep the severe weather risk relatively low.
Because the low pressure driving this front is so far north, at the Hudson Bay's latitude, the cold front should be very weak, and could stall somewhere in the northern Mid Atlantic or Northeast. Afterwards, the GFS shows another wave of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes and southern Canada, close enough to the region to bring the front through. The timing of this low pressure is uncertain, but if it slows down from what the GFS now expects, it is possible that parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast could see another round of severe weather on Monday before the front moves through, bringing a much colder air mass.
Because the low pressure driving this front is so far north, at the Hudson Bay's latitude, the cold front should be very weak, and could stall somewhere in the northern Mid Atlantic or Northeast. Afterwards, the GFS shows another wave of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes and southern Canada, close enough to the region to bring the front through. The timing of this low pressure is uncertain, but if it slows down from what the GFS now expects, it is possible that parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast could see another round of severe weather on Monday before the front moves through, bringing a much colder air mass.
